It has been five years since the Twins have played meaningful baseball as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches. Projected by nearly every baseball analyst to finish with a fifth consecutive 90-loss season, the Twins (52-48) currently sit in 2nd place in the AL Central, and own a two-game lead on the final Wild Card spot.

GM Terry Ryan has done an exemplary job of restocking the farm system over the last half-decade, ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the the 2nd best system in baseball. Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, and top prospect Byron Buxton are all rookies who have accumulated some service time this season.

Despite the unexpected success this season, the Twins have some glaring needs at shortstop, catcher, and relief pitcher if they are going to realistically compete for a playoff spot. The Twins have never been players in blockbuster trades, and I suspect that Ryan will make a trade or two for power relief arms that will only require sacrificing little minor league prospects.  I, on the other hand, would prefer promoting from within to solve the Twins’ needs, for the reasons below.

Shortstop
The Twins hold a few dubious distinctions at this position. Last year, Danny Santana marched onto the scene with a very impressive rookie campaign.  It was a foregone conclusion that Santana would regress, but probably not to the levels we have seen to this point. (Side note: WordPress does not have built in tables with their writing. I tried to align the following tables to the best of my ability, but I will need to figure out a better way to present data).

Danny Santana, MLB Career

Year    Games    AVG. OBP  wOBA BB%   K%    WAR
2014       101      .319  .353    .362   4.4% 22.8%   3.3
2015         72      .219   .243    .236    1.9% 25.2% -0.9

The concerns over Santana’s BB and K rates should have been somewhat concerning last year, but a 100-point drop in his on-base percentage exacerbates the problem. In fact, here’s where current Twins shortstops rank in Wins Above Replacement.

Lowest WAR Totals, Shortstop, 2015

Rank   Player                   Team        WAR
T-1 Danny Santana  TWINS      -0.9
T-1 Donovan Solano Marlins     -0.9
3    Starlin Castro      Cubs          -0.8
6   Alexei Ramirez  White Sox -0.7
7  Eduardo Escobar TWINS      -0.6

I merely mention Chicago’s pair of horrible middle infielders because the Cubs are interested in using Castro as part of a package for pitching upgrades, and Ramirez will be a free agent at seasons end, so the White Sox may be interested in dealing him. The Twins may be better served by recalling Jorge Polanco, who has a nice .284/.309 AVG/OBP line with only a 10.6% K-rate in 21 games at AAA Rochester.

Catcher
The Twins were a last place team a year ago. Kurt Suzuki, fresh off an All-star selection, would have been a decent trade chip at last year’s deadline. Instead, the Twins rewarded him with a contract extension through 2017. He’s rewarded the Twins with this:

Kurt Suzuki, Since 2014

Year  Games   AVG   OBP  wOBA WAR
2014  131     .288   .345      .324      2.1
2015     78      .229   .289      .259   -0.2

The trade market for a catcher isn’t overly promising. Stolen Bases Runs Scored (rSB) measures how a catcher can contribute by throwing out runners, as well as preventing them from stealing at all. In context, an rSB of 0 is considered average.
Catcher         Team     rSB
Alex Avila       Tigers     0
AJ Pierzynski Braves    -3
Kurt Suzuki      Twins      -3

Again, I mention Avila and Pierzynski based on their potential availability in a trade. None of these options give the Twins anything value-added defensively, although Pierzynski has put together a fine offensive campaign. Fangraphs does note that Suzuki is among the league’s worst pitch framers, although they do not offer that metric on their site. Further research on pitch framing is needed on my part. Just by watching Suzuki behind the plate, you can easily notice missed strike calls by umpires because of his poor pitch framing. As with the case, an internal option may be better suited for the Twins.

Relief Pitching
In true Terry Ryan fashion, the Twins love pitch-to-contact baseball. The pitching staff as a whole rarely misses bats, and routinely have the worst K/9 rate in baseball. Not lost on the staff is how exceptionally bad the bullpen is among the league at missing bats.

Best/Worst Bullpen K/9, Since 2013

Rank Team         K/9
1      Yankees   9.71
2    Reds          9.13
3    Rays         9.12
4    Mariners   9.03
5    Dodgers  8.93
26    Astros        7.78
27    Pirates      7.71
28    Rockies     7.66
29    Giants        7.61
30    Twins       7.07

I can forgive the Giants’ meager totals because all they’ve done is win three titles in six years. Terry Ryan is slowly realizing that drafting some power arms is essential to the team’s future success. The table below shows the current Twins bullpen (25 IP minimum), and their K/9 rate on the season. Notice how many of them are below the Twins’ 3-season average for relievers, and the correlation in their fastball velocity (FBv) with their strikeout rate.

Player                            K/9  FBv
Blaine Boyer             4.10  92.7
Aaron Thompson        4.73 89.7
Casey Fien                   4.88 92.2
Brian Duensing          5.19  91.8
Ryan Pressly              7.16   94.3
J.R. Graham              7.40  95.1
Glen Perkins              8.12  93.8

With Perkins set as the closer, the Twins are in a precarious spot with the putrid Thompson and Duensing, as they are lefties and are needed in crucial spots late in the game. Will Smith is a lefty that enjoys a 12.29 K/9 rate with the last place Brewers. This could be an interesting trade that the Twins could make at minimal prospect cost. They could also throw in either Duensing or Thompson (or both, for all I care). Right-handed in-house options are available in Rochester.

Player                  K/9 FBv
Michael Tonkin 12.04 94.5
Lester Oliveros 11.61  93.8
Alex Meyer         9.94  95.6

The Twins started the season on a timetable to compete starting in 2017. That timetable appears to have arrived a little earlier than expected. While nothing is guaranteed, fixing the obvious holes on the roster could provide the reinforcements needed for a playoff push. However, with the division seemingly handed to the Royals, fighting for the Wild Card spot — which only guarantees one playoff game — would make it unwise to push many chips in at the trade deadline. The Twins’ time is not quite here, so the organization’s usual exercise in restraint needs to be practiced at the deadline more than ever this year, despite fan clamoring for upgrades to be made by Friday. There are plenty of prospects chomping at the bit to make it to Minneapolis. Let’s sink or swim with the rookies this year.