When Twins owner Jim Pohlad hired Derek Falvey as the organization’s Chief Baseball Officer and Thad Levine to be its General Manager, Pohlad’s only caveat to the new front office was that they would be tied to manager Paul Molitor, who was coming off a franchise-worst 103 losses.

This usually ends up being a red herring in professional sports.  While you can point to the franchise-record Opening Day payroll in April as an exception to the theory that Falvey and Levine never perceived Molitor as “their guy”, the overall body of work since the end of the 2016 season has been that the front office has done nothing but set up Molitor for failure.

Case #1:  The 2017 non-waiver trade deadline.  After cutting the division deficit to 1 ½ games at one point in July 2017, the Twins went budget shopping, as they’re prone to do, “upgrading” the pitching staff by signing Bartolo Colon three days after being summarily executed released by the Braves, and then trading for Jaime Garcia from the Braves

One week later the Twins front office waived the white flag by trading Garcia and closer Brandon Kintzler to the Yankees and Nationals, respectively – while still feeling that Bartolo Colon deserved one of the five spots on the starting rotation.  Out of spite, Molitor got a 35-24 showing out of the team, a surprising Wild Card berth, and a Manager of the Year award.

This left the front office in quite a bind.  How would it resonate to the team and season ticket holders if they let the reigning MOY leave his hometown organization as a free agent?  Yet again, the two-headed monster of Falvey and Levine were left with the bad taste of having to retain Molitor, this time by offering him a three-year contract extension after the 2017 season.

Case #2:  The 2017 offseason.  Derek Wetmore makes a great observation linking the Twins and Brewers as similar organizations riding a surprising high from 2017 with rising fan base expectations.  While signing Logan Morrison, Zach Duke, and Addison Reed to give the offense some potential left-handed power and bolster a struggling bullpen respectively, the Brewers were aggressive in going after Lorenzo Cain and traded some future pieces away to Miami for MVP candidate Christian Yelich.  They also added Mike Moustakas, Gio Gonzalez, and Joakim Soria in July/August.  The Twins could have done something similar – like trade for Rays’ ace Chris Archer – instead opting for Jake Odorizzi and his two remaining years of control, signing Anibal Sanchez, then releasing him and signing Lance Lynn.  (Wetmore also notes that Sanchez enjoyed success with the Braves this season and is their Game 2 ALDS starter this weekend… go figure).

A constant question that is asked when manager turnover takes place is:  who is to blame for the team’s failures?  How much blame does the manager shoulder?  Let’s take a look at the Opening Day lineup and pitching rotation to set up the point, while also showing the status of the player on the final game of the season (2017 & 2018 statistics included):

Position            Player               2017 OPS/WAR          2018 OPS/WAR     Game 162 Roster

2B                    Brian Dozier            .856 / 5.0                       .696 / 0.8                   Dodgers

1B                    Joe Mauer                .801 / 2.2                        .729 / 1.0                   Twins

3B                   Miguel Sano             .859 / 2.4                        .679 / 0.0           Twins; Disabled List

LF                  Eddie Rosario           .836 / 2.5                        .803 / 3.4           Twins; Disabled List

DH               Logan Morrison         .868 / 3.2                       .644 / -0.7           Twins; Disabled List

SS                Eduardo Escobar        .758 / 1.7                       .824 / 3.5               Diamondbacks

RF                Max Kepler                 .737 / 1.4                       .727 / 2.6                    Twins

CF                Byron Buxton             .728 / 3.5                      .383 / -0.4       AAA Rochester (Twins)

C                  Jason Castro               .720 / 1.6                       .495 / -0.2            Twins; Disabled List

Starting Pitcher                2017 FIP/WAR                  2018 FIP/WAR             Game 162 Roster

Jake Odorizzi                           5.43 / 0.1                          4.20 / 2.6                                Twins

Jose Berrios                             3.84 / 2.9                          3.90 / 3.3                                Twins

Kyle Gibson                              4.85 / 1.2                          4.13 / 2.8                               Twins

Lance Lynn                              4.82 / 1.4                          3.84 / 2.9                             Yankees

Ervin Santana                          4.46 / 2.9                          7.94 / -0.5              Twins; Disabled List

Phil Hughes                              5.43 / 0.1                          6.34 / -0.5                            Padres

The lone bright spot on the Major League roster was the starting rotation, but we are talking about some historic futility with the everyday lineup, particularly when it comes to Sano and Buxton.  These two guys have been marketed by two different front office regimes as being the future foundation of the organization.  Is Molitor to blame for the offensive struggles of Dozier, Morrison, and Buxton?  Is he to blame for Sano’s poor offseason conditioning that consisted of Hardee’s Frisco burgers and binge watching The Crown?

The correct answer is:  it doesn’t really matter.  Molitor was never the guy the Two-Headed Monster wanted.  If the Two-Headed Monster had 2018 penciled in as a legitimate contention year, they would have been more aggressive using some of the accumulating pieces in the farm pipeline and made some trades for a real staff ace (Archer, Gerrit Cole), or spent money on a shutdown closer (Wade Davis), or made a splashy trade for a left-handed power bat.

My prediction on who the next manager will be:  it won’t be Mike Scioscia, Joe Girardi, or even Dusty Baker or Mike Matheny.  Derek Shelton, the Twins’ current bench coach, is linked to being the internal frontrunner, while Brad Mills, the Indians current bench coach who was hired by Falvey when he was in Cleveland.  Mills seems likely to me considering his history with Falvey, but at 61 (one year younger than Molitor), he wouldn’t be a long-term solution.