After sweeping the Orioles this weekend, their first series sweep since July 8^th (which was also against Baltimore), the Twins finished the weekend making up 2½ games in the Wild Card standings, and now trail the resurging Texas Rangers by only 1½ games for the final playoff spot.  Minnesota did suffer a key injury to outfielder Aaron Hicks earlier in the week, and did make what I think is a great trade to bolster the bullpen over the weekend (I will address each later in the week).  With ten teams off today, I decided to look into the remaining schedule for the AL division leaders and Wild card leaders/contenders and see what impact the final 38 games will have with these teams as we reach the home stretch of the regular season:

1. Kansas City Royals (75-48; AL Central Leaders)

Games Remaining: 39 (19 home; 20 away)

Opponents Win %: .493

Key Games:  6 games vs. Twins

Analysis:  All of the current division leaders have the easiest remaining opponents win percentage.  At 12 ½ games, the Royals also enjoy the biggest division lead of any of the current leaders, so there really isn’t a whole lot to analyze with this team.  Their only concern right now is staying healthy and wrapping up their first division title in 30 years.

2. Houston Astros (69-55; AL West Leaders)

Games Remaining:  38 (16 home; 22 away)

Opponents Win %: .493

Key Games: 7 vs. Texas; 6 vs. LA Angels

Analysis:  The Astros have the best home record in the AL, but also have one of the worst road records in the league.  While they have led the AL West for much of the season, they are only 12-13 against the Rangers and Angels in 2015.  With plenty of games left against division bottom feeders Oakland and Seattle, that may be enough to get them into the playoffs.  This week is a huge week for the Astros, as they visit the Bronx and then travel to Minnesota for a weekend series.

3. Toronto Blue Jays (69-55; AL East Leaders)

Games Remaining:  38 (18 home; 20 away)

Opponents Win %: .493

Key Games:  7 games vs. NY Yankees

Analysis:  The Blue Jays have won 16 of their last 20 games, and just came off a weekend sweep of the Angels, outscoring them 36-10.  The Jays’ strength all season long has been their offense, which leads all of Major League Baseball with a run differential of +164.  Only the Cardinals (+116) are remotely close to that differential.  The acquisitions of Troy Tulotwitzki and David Price are paying huge dividends, but despite all of the positives, with a mere ½-game division lead, the Yankees still lurk, and there are plenty of head-to-head games left with them.  A division title – and more importantly, a deep playoff run – is vital to the Jays this season.  Losing a one-game playoff as a wild card team would be catastrophic given all of the prospects this team has given up since December.

4. NY Yankees (68-55; Wild Card Leader)

Games Remaining:  39 (20 home; 19 away)

Opponents Win %: .502

Key Games:  7 games vs. Toronto

Analysis:  The Yankees have one of the toughest remaining schedules, thanks in large part to plenty of games remaining against the Blue Jays, and a series this week against the Astros.  They are reeling right now.  After sweeping the Twins last week, they lost 3 of 4 to last place Cleveland over the weekend.  To make matters worse, CC Sabathia appears headed to the disabled list after aggravating his knee on Sunday, and possibly could miss the rest of the season.  Michael Pineda, their best pitcher, returns from his own DL stint this week (talk about perfect timing).  Everyone knows how dangerous their offense can be, but the key will be whether or not the starting rotation can endure the rest of the season.  Betances and Miller (90% save conversion; 170 K’s and 1.55 ERA in 110 1/3 IP combined) is as automatic as you can get out of your setup man and closer.

5. Texas Rangers (64-59; 2^nd Wild Card Leader)

Games Remaining: 39 (23 home; 16 away)

Opponents Win %: .495

Key Games:  7 vs. Houston; 7 vs. LA Angels

Analysis:  I was surprised when the Rangers made the deadline trade for Cole Hamels, yet here they are clinging to a playoff spot, thanks to an 8-2 record in their last 10 games.  Hamels has underwhelmed mostly in his first month with his new club, going 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA.  The Rangers, like everyone else on this list, have plenty of opportunities left with their loaded division schedule, but their pitching is still a giant question mark.  Texas has allowed the 3^rd most runs in the AL, so they may have to slug their way into the playoffs.

6. LA Angels (63-61; Trail 2^nd Wild Card by 1.5 games)

Games Remaining: 38 (15 home; 23 away)

Opponents Win %: .494

Key Games:  7 vs. Texas; 6 vs. Houston

Analysis:  The Angels just cannot seem to get out of their own way.  They have plenty of decent pitching, but even with Mike Trout and a resurgent Albert Pujols on this team, only Tampa Bay and Cleveland have scored fewer runs in the AL than the Angels.  They also have the worst road record in the league, which as you can see from their home/away splits remaining, doesn’t bode well for them.  The final weekend of the season could add some significant drama, as the Angels go to Arlington for a 4-game series with the Rangers.  That very well could decide the outcome of one of the wild card spots, and possibly the AL West.

7. Minnesota Twins (63-61; Trail 2^nd Wild Card by 1.5 games)

Games Remaining: 38 (19 home; 19 away)

Opponents Win %: .516

Key Games:  6 vs. Houston; 4 vs. LA Angels, 6 vs. Kansas City (3 vs. KC final weekend of season)

Analysis:  The Twins have the toughest remaining schedule out of any of the contending playoff teams in the AL.  With the Central almost assuredly going to the Royals, the Twins’ best bet at the playoffs is ultimately the 2^nd wild card spot.  Minnesota is 21-16 against the Tigers, Indians, and White Sox, so with half of their remaining games against these teams, building on that record will be essential for their first trip to the playoffs in five years.  However, they have the worst on-base percentage (.302) than any team in the AL, so they are going to have to rely on timely hitting and hope the bullpen can hold up for the final month of the season.  Major League rosters expand to 40 players on September 1^st, and from a pitching perspective, there is probably no other team besides the Yankees who would gladly welcome additional bullpen arms.  If Kansas City wraps up the division and home field advantage early enough, the Royals could rest many of their core players during the final weekend series at Minnesota.

(Blog post epilogue:  I returned from an 8-day work trip to South Korea yesterday, so I have been very negligent on the blog over the last couple of weeks.  I am hoping to publish a few more posts this week before a mid-week/weekend trip to Kansas City).